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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.