Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
