Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
