Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean number of daily killings per month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent official figures. But, security experts have cautioned that murder data may not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This information was shared by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded over these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the least amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised operations to combat the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has linked her national security approach for an apparently steeper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state said: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between various departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that relying on murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it could obscure days when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by high bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas remarked.